Investors are looking to Unilever's third-quarter results to see if the consumer goods group has started to claw back some market share lost to cheaper rivals as it seeks to balance sales volumes and margins.
The packaged food industry, including Unilever, had to raise prices to cope with cost increases during the pandemic, while grain and energy became more expensive after Russia's Ukraine invasion.
Shoppers started trading down to cheaper alternatives, such as private label brands owned by Walmart, Tesco and Carrefour.
At their peak in the fourth quarter of 2022, Unilever's underlying price increases were 13.3%, with prices at its home care business up nearly 17% and prices at its ice cream business about 14% higher in that period.
"(On Thursday), we will look for the balance Unilever is striking between volumes and pricing," said Tineke Frikkee, a portfolio manager at Waverton Investment Management, a Unilever investor.
"They have lost market share to players who charged lower prices -- now prices have normalised, it will be interesting to see if volumes recover and if this has resulted in an improvement in competitive position."
Turnaround Plan
Unilever, on a turnaround push led by CEO Hein Schumacher, also lost market share because it cut its product ranges. But it has also been launching new products, including Wonder Wash detergent.
The company is expected to report a 4.2% increase in third-quarter underlying sales growth, driven by a 3.2% increase in sales volumes, with 1% price increases, based on an average of analyst estimates, according to a company-provided consensus.
Larger rival Nestlé missed organic sales growth estimates, reporting a nine-month price increase of 1.6%, behind analysts' average estimate of 1.7%. Real internal growth - or sales volumes - rose 0.5% versus an expected 0.8% increase.
Unilever's slower pace of price rises over the past year may have paid off in the third quarter.
A Barclays' analysis of data from market research group Nielsen, showed that Unilever's food business in the US gained market share in grocery stores each month in the third quarter, driven by mayonnaise and soup bases.
Unilever makes Knorr soup base and Hellmann's mayonnaise.
US Grocery Stores
The company's market share in US grocery stores rose by 34 basis points in the four weeks to July 13, 57 basis points in the four weeks to 10 August and 28 basis points in the four weeks to 7 September, the Barclays analysis of the Nielsen data, which does not capture all retail channels, showed.
But Unilever's market share for home and personal care goods sold in the US slumped in the third quarter, as did Unilever's European market share in food, at times, the data showed.
Unilever declined to comment.
"Europe accounts for 20% of group sales but has been responsible for 60% of Unilever's underperforming cells globally," Barclays analyst Warren Ackerman said. He noted that Unilever's European home and personal care business had seen improved market share during the third quarter.
"The proof will be in the pudding when earnings are reported but if they are gaining US market share that is clearly a good thing," Oberon Investments portfolio manager Jack Martin said. "If they can do that without eroding margins too much then it is good news."
