US demand is set to drive expansion in the world wine market through 2018 as consumption growth slows in China and traditional markets such as France and Italy contract.
Consumption in the US is poised to rise 11 per cent over the period from 2014 to 2018 to reach 378 million nine-litre cases, close to its 12-per-cent growth rate between 2009 and 2013, according to data from Vinexpo and International Wine & Spirit Research. Chinese growth is set to slow to 25 per cent from 69 per cent, taking its total to 181 million cases.
Demand for sparkling and rosé wines is among the drivers of the global market, while the slowdown in China (prompted by more muted economic growth and a crackdown by the government on gift-giving) is shifting the growth momentum in world still-wine consumption back to America. The US is set to remain the biggest wine-consuming nation in 2018, ahead of France, Italy, Germany and China (including Hong Kong).
“We see that the slowdown of China has been confirmed after two or three years of very impressive growth,” Vinexpo chief executive officer Guillaume Deglise said in an interview in London on 20 January. “The US market is taking the lead in terms of the global market.”
Other countries among the world’s top ten wine-consuming nations by volume are the UK, Argentina, Russia, Spain and Australia, according to the data.
In terms of consumption per head, the leading four nations (Italy, France, Switzerland and Portugal) are all forecast to see declining volume by 2018, while Austria and Greece are forecast to show an increase.
Global consumption of still wine will reach 2.51 billion cases in 2018, up 3.5 per cent from 2013, with the Asia-Pacific region boosting its share to 12 per cent from 11 per cent, according to the research. Europe will account for 61 per cent of still-wine consumption in 2018, down from 63 per cent five years earlier, with the Americas at 24 per cent, and Africa and the Middle East at 3 per cent.
“We still believe that in the coming years, there will be still some growth from China, but not on the premium side of the business,” Deglise said. Sales momentum in China would come “more on the entry-level or medium-range wines”.
Bloomberg News, edited by ESM
