Anthony Myers explores the changing tastes in bakery and pastry products, and how economic factors and well-being influence consumer choices. This article first appeared in ESM’s July/August 2024 edition.
Consumers have always had a ‘love-hate’ relationship with bakery and pastry products – especially those who wish to adopt a healthy, balanced diet.
Since the pandemic, there has been a shift towards more innovative healthy offerings for those who buy bakery, pastries and confectionery as treats – with reductions in certain ingredients, including sugar, fat and salt – but how can pastry chefs and bakers elevate the consumer experience to become integral to a healthy lifestyle?
The Trend Revolution
According to a recent report from Innova Market Insights, three quarters of consumers surveyed globally have taken some action in the past year to live healthier than they were previously. Two healthier-living trends are eating a healthy diet – up to 20% pick foods to boost health or limit ‘bad’ ingredients – and getting regular exercise. In the eyes of the consumer, ‘eating healthfully’ can include ‘overindulgent healthy snacks’.
Many bakeries are experimenting with natural sweeteners like honey, maple syrup and coconut sugar, which have a lower glycaemic index than refined sugar. This shift is partly driven by increased awareness of the health risks associated with high sugar consumption, including obesity and diabetes.
According to ingredients supplier Barry Callebaut, the next level of indulgence in bakery trends will be providing multisensory experiences, with chefs playing with different textures – think creamy, crispy, crunchy, moist and soft, for example, in the use of decorations, inclusions and fillings. In addition, brightly coloured coatings and specially coloured dough are on the rise.
‘We see both artisans and brands creating these layers of texture, flavour and colour in many different baked good categories,’ the company’s website notes.
Another significant trend is the rise of artisanal breads. Consumers are increasingly seeking out bread made using traditional methods, often involving long fermentation times and natural sourdough starters. While there is no evidence to suggest that sliced white bread is going ‘stale’ with consumers, it does contain its fair share of emulsifiers, artificial preservatives, and seed oils.
For those who can afford it, fresh bread from the bakery is the first choice, rather than ambient loaves.
Food consultant Amelia Rope notes that artisanal bakeries are proving successful with consumers because they create a community, saying, “Yes, prices on raw materials are going up, and they [businesses] have to pass those on to the consumer. Otherwise, their business is not sustainable, but if owners harness this community, people will still spend. They may go from a premium line in a supermarket to the essential line, but people will still spend on a treat.”
It’s a trend backed up by Baker & Baker director Jonathan Adams, who adds, “Consumers continue to seek out indulgence with their fresh-bakery choices, and it’s important that manufacturers and brands alike position bakery products as a treat to be enjoyed in moderation, as part of a healthy, balanced diet.
“Across the board, manufacturers have significantly emphasised reformulation and reducing the amount of sugar, fat and calories in bakery products without adversely affecting quality or taste. This, in turn, has had a positive impact on the health credentials of products across all bakery categories, ultimately benefitting the consumer.”
Additionally, gluten-free and vegan bakery products have moved from niche markets to mainstream shelves. As dietary preferences and restrictions become more common, bakeries innovate with alternative flours and plant-based ingredients, to cater to a broader audience.
Rope notes that white spelt flour is part of this trend, thanks to its use in artisanal bakeries, although supplies are increasingly hard to come by because of the war in Ukraine.
“Spelt is really starting to gain its legs because everything is changing, and many nostalgic bakeries like [high-end US baker] Madeline’s Pâtisserie are suddenly having a regeneration, as they are evolving as our palates are evolving,” she says.
There is also a growing demand for nutrient-dense ingredients and clean labels, which will continue to influence the industry. Bakers increasingly incorporate superfoods like chia seeds, quinoa and flaxseed into their products. These ingredients boost nutritional value and cater to the demand for functional foods, which provide health benefits beyond essential nutrition.
Flavours To Savour
Rose and pistachio flavours remain popular in confectionery and pastries, and, according to Rope, cherry appears to be having a moment this summer, as does pandan – similar to palm – and black sesame.
Baker & Baker’s Adams adds that, across Europe, “[an] increasing number of baked goods feature cinnamon, along with specific retail and foodservice outlets pushing this ingredient.”
Baker & Baker launched a vegan Franzbrötchen in 2022. This traditional Northern German pastry is now beginning to gain traction with consumers across the Continent.
“The addition of cinnamon pairs particularly well with the Portuguese speciality pastel de nata – another regional bakery product that is now thriving throughout Europe,” says Adams. “We make our pastel de nata in the traditional way, at our Portuguese facility in Peniche, and we’re seeing the product being adopted in other markets across Europe.”
‘Newstalgia’ And Innovations
Technological advancements are set to play a significant role in the industry. Artificial intelligence (AI) and automation in baking are expected to grow, helping to streamline production and ensure consistency while allowing for greater creativity and customisation. Baker & Baker noted that it has also identified three key innovations during the last 12 months.
“Increases in the cost of living have given rise to the comforting familiarity of our favourites, but with an indulgent twist,” says Adams. “Nostalgia is a considerable driver of next-gen hybrids, which we could term ‘newstalgia’.”
An example is crumble-topped desserts evolving beyond classic oats, incorporating croissant flakes, chopped nuts, and toasted coconut.
“Also coming to the fore are regional influences in hybrid products, including Black Forest reinventions or crème brûlée-style finishing, and custard-based products being enriched with flavours such as malted custard and mascarpone [as well as ricotta],” says Adams. “The second innovation is global flavour influences, such as pistachio, which continues to be the fastest-growing sweet bakery flavour. Japanese and South-East Asian inspirations also bring vibrant matcha greens, purple ubes [yams], and new flavours like miso and umami.”
Bold and vibrant colours, nostalgic s’mores, and oversized cookies stuffed with marshmallows are other trends likely to appeal to consumers.
Adams adds, “Consumers are willing to spend extra for premium treats with layered textures and flavours, such as crookies [croissant and cookie dough] and ‘the triple’ [multiple layers of indulgent baked goods], which offer different sensory experiences.”
Elsewhere, the US National Science Foundation’s Allister Nelson says that advances in 3D food-printing have enabled researchers to print novel foods. By experimenting with texture and taste, this new frontier of customised food science taps into the general interest in healthy cooking and foodie culture.
Keeping Prices Down
Dazzling creations aside, volatility in the prices of critical commodities – including wheat, sugar, cocoa and dairy – continues to be a significant factor in the bakery and pastry industry.
In its latest survey of members, the Federal Association of the German Confectionery Industry (BDSI) noted that the industry is facing enormous challenges and ‘uncertainties’, with price ‘explosions’ for important agricultural products and raw materials, such as cocoa and hazelnuts.
Sugar prices have also been affected, impacted by environmental factors and international trade policies. The cost of sugar has increased by around 10% due to adverse weather conditions in major sugar-producing countries like Brazil and India, and supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Wheat prices have fluctuated due to varying weather conditions, geopolitical tensions, and changes in global demand. According to recent data, they have risen by approximately 15% over the past year.
Dairy prices – crucial for various bakery products – have been subject to similar pressures. Rising feed costs for dairy cattle and logistical challenges have contributed to a 12% increase in dairy prices. These cost increases are often passed on to consumers, leading to higher prices for bakery and pastry products.
“A number of geopolitical events, such as COVID and the war in Ukraine, have seen the prices of some raw materials fluctuate in recent years,” says Adams. “We are seeing a significant spike in the cost of cocoa, which is likely to have a particular impact on the bakery market towards the end of this year and into 2025.”
He says that it is critical for manufacturers and retailers to work closely together to mitigate raw-material cost inflation and incorporate such considerations into pricing and reformulation decisions.
Responsible Sourcing
“Supply chains are always going to be challenging, and the sustainability of your business is also precarious, but if you harness your community, if you harness your audience, you harness your customer,” says Rope, adding that an emerging generation of consumers has higher standards when it comes to the products that it commits to purchasing.
“The younger generation are still spending, but they have strict criteria,” she says. “I like how they hold everybody accountable and hold the mirror up, saying, ‘Are you genuine? If so, I’ll pay £5, but I’ll only pay £5 if everything meets my requirements.’ I think that’s good.”
Last month, the Federation of European Manufacturers and Suppliers of Ingredients (Fedima) to the bakery, confectionery and patisserie industries published its Code of Conduct for Responsible Sourcing in the bakery ingredients industry, renewing its commitment to creating a favourable policy environment while ensuring a sustainable and innovative baked-goods sector.
Fedima’s industry-wide code is aimed at its members and all suppliers of the bakery and patisserie industry in Europe, providing them with common responsible-sourcing standards and guiding them in their implementation.
According to Jean-Philippe Michaux, chair of Fedima’s sustainability committee, its positioning halfway along the supply chain – “between farm and fork” – means that it is “uniquely placed” at the crossroads between the production and consumption of baked products.
“Responsible sourcing is a growing challenge to all operators of the bakery value chain, and our members are eager to play their part in supplying ingredients that are responsibly sourced to the European bakery sector and its consumers,” Michaux says.
The code’s standards include compliance with existing laws and regulations, as well as the quality and safety of products and raw materials, ethical business practices, and respect for human rights.
A healthy and safe work environment, the minimisation of environmental impact, attention to animal welfare, supply chain transparency, and continuous improvement are also identified as key principles by which to abide.
The Proof Is In The Pudding
In conclusion, the bakery and pastry industry is in relatively good health, with consumers continuing to seek indulgence in their fresh-bakery choices. It’s important that manufacturers and brands alike position bakery products as a treat to be enjoyed in moderation, as part of a healthy, balanced diet, according to Adams.
It’s true that, across the board, manufacturers have significantly emphasised reformulation and reducing the amount of sugar, fat and calories in bakery products, without adversely affecting their quality or taste. This, in turn, has had a positive impact on the health credentials of products across all bakery categories, ultimately benefitting the consumer.
The journey of the bakery and pastry industry has always been one of tradition meeting modernity, and, right now, it promises a future filled with possibilities.
