Coffee output in Brazil, the world’s top producer and exporter, may rise as much as 20 per cent to a record in 2016 as growers expand their plantings and rain boosts crops.
Growers may reap between 49.1 million and 51.9 million bags, up from 43.2 million bags in 2015, the Agriculture Ministry’s crop-forecasting agency known as Conab said Wednesday in its first forecast for the harvest. The production of Arabica beans may increase as much as 24 per cent to 39.9 million bags from 32 million bags a year earlier. Robusta output is seen between 11.4 million and 12.1 million bags, up from 11.2 million bags in 2015.
Coffee harvesting, which reached a previous record in 2012 at 50.8 million bags, starts in May. A bag weighs 60 kilograms, or 132 pounds.
This season marks the higher-yielding half of a biennial cycle. Crops, which were hurt by the worst drought in decades in 2014, have benefited from widespread rain, boosting the production outlook and helping to send prices to the lowest since January 2014. Future contracts for Arabica and robusta traded in New York and London have tumbled about 30 per cent over the past year.
"Favourable weather conditions in the main Arabica-producing regions, combined with the positive yield cycle, favour crops and explain productivity gains in most states,” Conab said in a statement.
Conab said robusta yields should recover in the southeastern state of Espirito Santo, where coffee fields were hurt by high temperatures last year. Higher investments in the crop should also help production, Conab said.
Arabica is grown mainly in Latin America and brewed by specialty companies including Starbucks Corp. Robusta beans, used in instant coffee, are harvested in Asia, Latin America and parts of Africa.
Brazil’s green coffee exports rose 1.2 per cent last year to a record 33.3 million bags, boosted by the weaker real and tight global supplies. Shipments should ‘at least’ repeat last year’s level in 2016, exporters group Cecafe said Tuesday. Brazil accounts for about one-third of global coffee exports.
"We expect a good crop," Nelson Carvalhaes, the head of Cecafe, told journalists in Sao Paulo. "Brazil’s supplies will be enough to meet domestic and export demand this year."
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