Brazil, a global leader in orange juice exports, is expected to see its weakest orange harvest in 36 years, according to citrus industry research group Fundecitrus.
The 2024/25 season, which began this month, is expected to yield only 232.4 million boxes of oranges (each weighing around 41 kilograms). This marks a 24.36% decrease compared to the previous season's total of 307.22 million boxes.
This estimate, based on Fundecitrus' 10-year Harvest Estimation Survey (PES), marks the lowest harvest in the survey's history.
This shortfall is already impacting orange prices on international commodity exchanges, with prices already up 26% this year.
Extreme Weather
Fundecitrus has warned that extreme heat stressed orange trees during a critical period for flowering and initial fruit formation, which occurred between September and November of last year. Citrus greening, a disease that causes premature fruit drop, is also hindering production.
Brazil's weak production is likely to have a significant effect on the global orange juice supply, considering the country accounts for roughly 70% of all orange juice exports.
The situation is further compounded by record orange prices in São Paulo, Brazil's leading producer. Prices reached historic highs in March 2024, exceeding R$ 100 per 40.8 kilo box.
Production And Pricing
This means there will be around four litres less orange juice available per EU citizen, according to estimates from the VdF – Der Verband der deutschen Fruchtsaft-Industrie e. V. (Association of the German Fruit Juice Industry).
The 24.36% decline in harvest translates to a decline of 1.7 billion litres when compared with the annual orange juice production of 7.1 billion litres.
The per capita consumption of orange juice in Germany was 6.8 litres in 2023, the VdF noted.
The price of orange juice rose to the highest level on 31 October 2023 since future contracts started trading in New York in 1966, as an outlook for limited production in the United States, Brazil and Mexico boosted investors' interest in the product.
