South Africa will probably trim its wheat-production estimate for this season after the worst drought in more than two decades reduced plantings and worsened crop yields.
The country’s farmers probably harvested 1.495 million metric tonnes of the grain this year, according to the median prediction of four analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. That’s 0.7 per cent less than the Crop Estimates Committee forecast last month and would be the least since at least 2011. The body will publish its new figures on 15 December.
The driest conditions since 1992 have have damaged crops and livestock and sent local wheat prices to the highest on record. The government has declared disaster areas in several provinces of the country, the continent’s’ biggest corn and sugar grower, and the nation’s weather service has predicted below-normal rain in the next four months.
"Farmers in areas such as Swartland, one of the areas most affected by the dryness, have received 30 to 40 per cent below- average yields," Wandile Sihlobo, an economist at the Grain SA farmers’ lobby, said in an e-mail. While the harvest is complete in the Western Cape province, farmers are still reaping grain in other areas, he said.
This week's update from the Crop Estimates Committee will be the fifth this season. The analyst predictions ranged from 1.48 million tonnes to 1.5 million tonnes.
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