South Africa will probably keep its forecast for the corn harvest to be the smallest in eight years, after drought damaged crops in the continent’s largest producer of the grain. Analysts expect wheat plantings to increase.
Farmers may reap 9.67 million metric tons of corn this season, according to the median of four analysts’ estimates in a Bloomberg survey. That would be the least since 2007 and match the February and March outlooks from the Crop Estimates Committee, which will release its prediction on 29 April.
The worst drought since 1992 hurt crops in the Free State and North West provinces, which accounted for almost two thirds of corn output last year, and prompted the nation to import the grain for the first time in 11 months. White corn prices rose 20 per cent this year, rebounding from a 24 per cent decline in 2014, when the harvest was the largest in more than three decades.
“There is not enough maize harvested to get feedback of actual yields,” Andrew Fletcher, an independent trader in Kroonstad, said on Tuesday. “That information will become available during the coming months.”
Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 9.66 million tons to 9.8 million tons. Farmers, due to finish harvesting in September, reaped 14.3 million tons last year, the most in 33 years.
The country will probably plant 480,000 hectares (1.19 million acres) of wheat this season, the median of three analysts’ estimates showed. That’s 0.7 per cent more than last year and will be the committee’s first forecast for intended plantings. South Africa is a net importer of wheat.
White corn, used as a staple food for people, settled at 2,572 rand ($210) a ton on the South African Futures Exchange in Johannesburg on Wednesday. The yellow variety, mostly fed to animals, climbed 8.8 per cent this year to 2,356 rand a ton. Wheat declined 6.1 per cent to 3,755 rand a ton.
“Farmers may want to plant more maize given price levels for maize,” Fletcher said.
Bloomberg News, edited by ESM
