Wheat shipments from India may drop next year to the lowest since 2011 as global prices near a four-year low undercut exports from the world’s second-biggest producer.
Exports will probably total 1.5 million metric tons in the year starting 1 April, according to the median of estimates from seven traders, analysts and industry officials compiled by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest since 891,000 tons in 2011-2012, and compares with 3.5 million tons this year, US Department of Agriculture data show.
Total world grain production, excluding rice, will probably advance to a record this year, the International Grains Council said 22 January. Abundant supplies from Europe and the Black Sea region are edging out Indian wheat from markets in Southeast Asia, according to Tejinder Narang, a New Delhi-based consultant.
“Internationally, wheat prices are under pressure and I don’t think there is any reason why Indian values will be competitive in the global market,” Atul Chaturvedi, the chief executive officer of agriculture business at Adani Enterprises Ltd., said by phone from Ahmedabad on 10 March.
World wheat output reached a record 724.76 million tons in 2014-2015, according to USDA data on 10 March. That may help expand global grain stockpiles to 432 million tons, the highest since the mid 1980s, the council estimates.
India’s wheat harvest may total 95.8 million tons in 2014-2015, near the record 95.9 million tons a year earlier, according to Agriculture Ministry data. That may boost domestic inventories and reduce prices of flour, cookies, bread and cakes, according to Faiyaz Hudani, associate vice president at Kotak Commodity Services in Mumbai.
Bloomberg News, edited by ESM
