Pork prices are set to increase by more than 15% in Western Europe and 20% in the US as African swine fever continues to plague Chinese pig farms, new data from Informa’s Agribusiness Intelligence has revealed.
China is the world's largest producer, consumer, and importer of pork.
Benefit For Western Markets
The disruption caused by the outbreak of the disease is likely to benefit the western markets that are sensing an opportunity to fill the gaps in the supply chain, the study pointed out.
Director of global proteins at Informa’s Agribusiness Intelligence, David Williams, said, "With China currently unable to stop the spread of the virus, it needs to source additional product from its trade partners.
"On a national level, the restrictions imposed on the movement of pigs and pork from affected Chinese provinces is causing market dislocations and is, in turn, leading to panic selling and the reduction of pig prices below breakeven in some of the regions affected by ASF (African swine fever)."
Forecast
Pork production in the US is expected to increase by 3% in 2019, with exports increasing by 20% due to an increase in global demands, the study predicted.
Production in Western Europe is forecast to increase by 5%, despite the presence of the disease in central and eastern Europe.
"If the disease is kept out of major producers such as Germany, Denmark, and Spain, Western Europe in particular, can expect to profit from a likely increase in Chinese import demand," Williams added.
"As things stand, these countries are in prime position to supply the Chinese market leaving ASF-affected countries to fill gaps in some other markets."
Disease Control Strategy
The study also indicated that 2019 is likely to witness refinements in EU’s disease control strategy, and the meat industry is hoping for a breakthrough in the development of an ASF vaccine.
According to Reuters, Rabobank has estimated that up to 200 million pigs could be culled or die from the infection in China, dragging down the country's pork output by 30% in 2019.
© 2019 European Supermarket Magazine – your source for the latest retail news. Article by Dayeeta Das. Click subscribe to sign up to ESM: European Supermarket Magazine.
