The European grocery retail market is set to achieve sales of €2.3 trillion (€2,289 billion) by 2022, as a result of strong growth in Central and Eastern Europe, according to forecasts from research firm IGD.
In particular, the CEE grocery markets of Poland, Ukraine, Romania and Russia are expected to see strong growth in the next five years, with sales across Europe experiencing a compound annual growth rate of 3.7%.
In particular, IGD says that Turkey, Russia and the UK will have driven 51% of Europe's grocery retail sales growth between 2017 and 2022, while Europe will account for 16% of global grocery retail sales growth over the next five years.
Tale Of Two Markets
"After Asia, Europe is set to benefit from the biggest increase in shopper spend to 2022, however, we are predicting mixed growth for the top five grocery markets," said Jon Wright, head of retail insight at IGD.
"Turkey is forecast to experience the most dynamic sales growth in Europe, with rising shopping spending driving much of real growth," Wright added.
Wright said that Europe's other large grocery retail markets, including Germany, France and the UK, will experience a slower pace of expansion due to factors such as low population growth, decreasing consumer confidence and higher inflation.
Growth Areas
Looking at Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), IGD says that the top five markets will face inflation over the next five years, but that there are "pockets of real growth" in the region.
"The grocery retail market in CEE continues to develop at pace, with retailers investing in their stores to encourage shoppers to visit more frequently and to stay for longer periods of time," said Wright.
"New food courts with snack and meal options are popping up in larger stores, helping to attract new shoppers and extend the length of their stay. Retailers are also experimenting with an array of new technologies, all aimed at making shopping easier and quicker for shoppers," he continued.
Meanwhile, in Western Europe, IGD notes that inflation is set to be a major factor driving total sales in the grocery market.
"Rising shopper spending will underpin real growth for most countries, as the economies of France, Italy and Spain continue to recover and have a strengthening outlook. This will boost shopper confidence and spending," added Wright.
"Retailers and manufacturers in Western Europe will continue to look for new ways to find growth, with a focus on the growing demand for niche products or flavours, including an increase in organic, gluten-free and free-from products, an increased focus on convenience stores, including opening new locations and maximising ranges, and making online profitable in an increasingly competitive marketplace," he said.
IGD forecasts that the top ten European grocery markets in 2022 will be Russia (€359.42 billion), Germany (€264.37 billion), France (€249.7 billion), the UK (€249.56 billion), Turkey (€194.80 billion), Italy (€192.82 billion), Spain (€124.39 billion), Poland (€73.22 billion), the Netherlands (€58.41 billion) and Belgium (€47.19 billion).
© 2018 European Supermarket Magazine – your source for the latest retail news. Article by Sarah Harford. Click subscribe to sign up to ESM: The European Supermarket Magazine.
