Consumer confidence among members of the public in the UK is ‘still far from strong’, but there is ‘some room for optimism’, a new study by NIQ has found.
NIQ’s latest GfK Consumer Confidence Index found that consumer confidence in the UK increased by one point in December, to -17, with two measures seeing an increase and three remaining unchanged, month on month.
‘Holding Pattern’
According to Neil Bellamy, consumer insights director, NIQ GfK, UK consumers are in a “holding pattern” at present, however, views on personal finances over the next 12 months went up by two points and have returned to positive territory (+1).
“This echoes the encouraging positive scores we saw in this measure from March to August,” Bellamy said. “However, with the major purchase measure unchanged, at -16, in December, consumers are still thinking twice about big-ticket purchases and whether they will bring Christmas cheer.”
Views about the economy are unchanged from November, the data showed (-39 over the last 12 months; -26 for the next 12 months), which suggests that “people don’t know where we are going,” Bellamy added. “We will need to see robust improvements in these perceptions of the economy before we can start talking about sustained improvements in the consumer mood.
“In a nutshell, it’s the continuing uncharitable view on the UK’s general economic situation that’s suppressing consumer confidence.”
Reduced Volatility
Throughout 2024, consumer confidence showed reduced volatility, compared to previous years, with an eight-point difference between the highest and lowest monthly scores. This contrasts with a 23-point range in 2023 and a 30-point range in 2022.
The year’s most significant shifts in sentiment were tied to major political and economic events, particularly the UK general election, where initial post-election optimism gave way to a sharp seven-point decline in September.
Elsewhere, Black Friday provided a “vital boost” to retailers.
Bellamy added, “Figures from GfK’s point-of-sale data reveal a strong Black Friday sales performance, with sales of technology and durables, homeware, and seasonal products up [by] 1.8% in value and 7.7% in volume overall, versus Black Friday 2023. Turnover in Black Friday Week hit £992 million – a figure that’s 110% better than the average week in 2024.”
