Brazilian corn exports could jump exponentially next year if farmers harvest a full crop and Chinese demand is strong, Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters said.
Brazil is poised to export 40 million tonnes to 50 million tonnes of corn next year, boosted by a new trade protocol with China and a potential bumper crop, said Sergio Mendes, director general of the group, known as Anec, in an interview.
Brazil could export as much as five million tonnes of corn to China alone in 2023, making it a key supplier to the country alongside the United States.
China's import demand is 18 million tonnes for the 2022/2023 cycle, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
Brazilian corn exports to China of around 62,000 tonnes in the year through October were likely limited by a strict old protocol, Mendes said, citing Brazilian trade data.
Brazil's overall export volumes could reach a record high after Beijing authorised a number of Brazilian corn exporters under the new protocol, he added.
Shipping Schedules
At least three vessels were named to ship Brazilian corn to China, Agrinvest analyst Eduardo Vanin wrote in a note to clients, citing shipping schedules data. He said he expected more in coming weeks.
Traders in Asia have talked about six to eight vessels named to take Brazil's corn to China as well, Vanin added.
Chinese customs updated its list of approved Brazilian corn exporters earlier this month, a move the Brasilia government said could jumpstart sales to the world's second-largest economy.
On Tuesday, Anec projected 38.3 million tonnes of corn exports through end-November.
For full-year 2021, Brazilian exported 20.6 million tonnes of corn, reduced by a drought that spoiled part of the crop, Anec data showed.
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