China’s export outlook has improved on recovering global demand and as the threat of a trade war with its biggest trading partner fizzled.
The International Monetary Fund boosted its estimate of global growth this year, brightening the outlook for external demand. Still, both exports and imports missed economists’ estimates, adding to recent evidence that growth may be pulling back after a strong first quarter.
Economist Takeaways
"The latest numbers are consistent with signs of a slowdown from April business surveys," Bloomberg Intelligence economists Tom Orlik and Fielding Chen wrote in a report. "If the peak for 2017 growth is already in the past, China’s space for progress on a challenging deleveraging agenda will be limited. Diminished scope for higher interest rates will also add pressure for yuan weakness."
"The current global demand recovery is fragile and remains susceptible to setbacks," Louis Kuijs, head of Asia economics at Oxford Economics in Hong Kong, wrote in a note. "We expect China’s import growth to continue to ease on slower real estate activity momentum and less accommodative macro policy in China."
"Growth in exports shows robust global demand," said Xia Le, a Hong Kong-based economist at Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA. "China’s financial deleveraging has just started, and will weigh on the domestic economy. Imports will reflect that trend first."
"The broader context for China’s export stabilization is the recovery of global economy," said Tommy Xie, an economist at OCBC Bank in Singapore. "China’s own economy is also off a good start in the first quarter and the momentum seems to have carried onto April."
News by Bloomberg, edited by ESM. Click subscribe to sign up to ESM: The European Supermarket Magazine.
