Global arabica coffee prices hit record highs on Monday, as farmers in top producer Brazil remain reluctant to sell given uncertainties over the upcoming crop and hopes for still higher prices.
Forward sales of Brazil's 2025/26 coffee crop have been lagging the average for this time of year, with just 12% sold to date versus 19% this time last year, industry data showed on Friday (24 January). The longer-term average for the period stands at 21%.
Brazil produces nearly half the world's arabica beans, a high-end variety typically used in roast and ground blends. The country experienced one of its worst droughts in history last year.
"The market has been drawing support from expectations that the severe drought last year has left coffee trees lacking the vitality to produce a strong crop," said ADMISI, the brokerage arm of agriculture trading giant Archer Daniels Midland.
Some traders, however, said recent tours of coffee regions in Brazil showed the crop is looking better than previously expected thanks to the rains seen over the past several months which, they added, are expected to persist.
Arabica Coffee Futures
All the same, arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange, used to price physical coffee around the world, touched a record $3.5555 per lb earlier, bringing gains for the year to nearly 10%.
They closed up 0.5% at $3.492 per lb, while robusta coffee futures LRCc2, a generally cheaper variety used mostly to make instant coffee, fell 1.5% to $5,460 a metric ton.
Underpinning prices, ICE data showed certified arabica stocks fell by 19,814 bags on Friday, bringing losses for the week to 53,442 bags and leaving total stocks at under 1 million bags.
Also, the Brazilian real has been strengthening of late, deterring farmers in the country from exporting dollar-priced coffee by lowering their returns in local currency terms.
In other soft commodities traded, raw sugar SBc1 rose 0.8% to 19.17 cents per lb, while white sugar LSUc1 gained 1.8% to $507.00 a ton.
London cocoa LCCc1 fell 1.4% to 9,055 pounds per tonne, while New York cocoa CCc2 fell 1.7% to $11,219 a tonne.
