The global coffee supply balance will shift from a deficit of 2.17 million bags in 2022/23 (Oct-Sept) to a surplus of 3.74 million bags in 2023/24 as Brazil's output partly recovers, according to a report by consultancy HedgePoint.
It projected Brazilian 2023/24 (April-March) coffee production to be between 64.9 and 68.9 million bags, compared to 59 million bags projected for 2022/23.
HedgePoint coffee analyst Natalia Gandolphi said in the report that despite a Brazilian recovery next season compared to the two previous crops, which were impacted by frosts and drought, production will still be 14% smaller than the 2020/21 record of 72.6 million bags.
Gandolphi said many coffee fields in Brazil are still recovering after pruning.
Coffee Outlook
The consultancy projects Brazil's 2023/24 arabica coffee production between 44.4 and 46.4 million bags, versus 36 million bags in 2022/23.
Robusta coffee output is expected to be between 20.5 and 22.5 million bags compared to 23 million bags in 2022/23.
The report said that despite a global surplus in 2023/24, the stocks-to-use ratio will improve only slightly since global inventories are expected to remain historically low, particularly during the second quarter of next year.
Only a few estimates for Brazil's new coffee season have been released so far.
Dutch bank Rabobank expects production to grow at least 8% to 68.5 million bags, while consultancy SpillingTheBeans expects between 50 and 56 million bags.
In November, Brazilian coffee farmers and experts downgraded expectations regarding next year's crop in the world's largest producer after a mostly negative post-flowering evolution in many of the areas they oversee.
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