Olive oil prices are set to drop significantly by the end of the year, according to Zefferino Monini, CEO of Monini, a leading Italian olive oil producer.
Monini told Il Sole 24 Ore, a price decrease of 30-40% due to a substantial increase in production, projected to reach 3.3-3.5 million tons this year, compared to 2.5 million tons in the previous campaign.
This surge in production is expected to replenish olive oil stocks to levels unseen in the past decade, effectively counteracting the two preceding years of low production, particularly in Spain.
Price Drop
Consequently, consumers can anticipate seeing prices fall back below €10 per litre, a welcome relief after two years of sky-high prices.
Monini believes the price drop will lead to increased consumption worldwide, particularly in countries where olive oil is not yet a staple. He cites China as an example, where consumption dropped by 60% last year due to high prices.
This positive outlook for olive oil prices was presented at the launch of Monini's third Sustainability Report, which was compiled by The European House - Ambrosetti.
Monini forecasts a rebound in global olive oil consumption in 2025, reaching approximately 3 million tonnes, compared to 2.7 million tonnes in 2024. This prediction is based on data from the International Olive Council (COI).
Italy's Production
While acknowledging that Italy's production will be lower than usual due to the recent dry climate, Monini emphasises that this will not affect the price of Italian extra virgin olive oil.
Italy currently produces an average of 300,000 tons of olive oil per year, while domestic demand sits at 900,000 tons. To address this gap and ensure resilience to climate change, Monini stresses the need for increased investment in domestic olive oil production.
Monini's 2023 Sustainability Report highlights the company's strong performance and commitment to responsible practices. The Umbrian olive oil producer marketed 23 million litres of extra virgin olive oil, generating a turnover of €195 million. In just four years, Monini has planted over 700,000 olive trees, with the first harvest expected in October.
Monini manages 624 hectares of olive groves using either organic farming or inter-row grassing methods. The group has also made significant strides in reducing its environmental impact, achieving a 34.7% decrease in CO2 emissions across its value chain compared to 2022.
Low Yield
The Italian Association of the Oil Industry (Assitol) has confirmed a low-yield campaign overall, with significant regional disparities, estimating that the overall national production will be around 200,000 tons due to water stress, extreme weather, and the low-yield year.
Monini manages 624 hectares of olive groves using either organic farming or inter-row grassing methods. The group has also made significant strides in reducing its environmental impact, achieving a 34.7% decrease in CO2 emissions across its value chain compared to 2022.
The Italian Association of the Oil Industry (Assitol) has confirmed a low-yield campaign overall, with significant regional disparities, estimating that the overall national production will be around 200,000 tons due to water stress, extreme weather, and the low-yield year.
Overall, the outlook is improving, driven by a strong recovery in Spain and other Mediterranean countries. Spain, the traditional market leader, is expected to produce over 1.3 million tons of olive oil, while Turkey and Tunisia are also projected to experience growth, with an estimated production of 250,000 and 320,000 tons respectively. Greece and Portugal are also anticipated to see positive trends, with an estimated production of 230,000 and 170,000 tons.
