Olive oil prices are projected to drop by nearly 50% from an all-time high in the coming months, CNBC reported, citing Spanish olive oil producer Deoleo.
Miguel Ángel Guzmán, chief sales officer of Deoleo, believes that the reduction in prices at origin will begin between November, December and January, if weather and harvest conditions remain stable in the coming weeks.
The forecast resonates with that of Zefferino Monini, the CEO of Italian olive oil producer Monini.
In September of this year, Monini told Il Sole 24 Ore that a price decrease of 30-40% is expected by the end of the year due to a substantial increase in production.
According to Guzmán, the sector is "still going through a phase of tension in olive oil prices, especially in the higher quality oils, such as Extra Virgin.”
He attributed it to existing market uncertainty ahead of the olive harvest for the 2024-2025 season.
Price Changes
Deoleo, the producer of Bertolli and Carbonell brands, expects olive oil prices to drop to around €5 per litre, from highs of €9 to €10.
Sunflower oil dethroned olive oil as king of the kitchen in Spain in the first half of the year as consumers switched to cheaper options, Reuters reported.
Spanish shoppers bought 107 million litres (28.3 million gallons) of all types of olive oil in the first half of 2024 compared to 179 million litres of sunflower oil, data from the Spanish olive oil bottling association, Anierac, showed.
The European Commission said in October that olive oil supply in Europe is set to rise sharply in the year ahead as top producer Spain recovers from drought, though it is unclear if households affected by record prices will return to the Mediterranean specialty.
