South Africa has cut its orange export forecast for the 2024 season due to bad weather in key growing regions, the country's citrus growers' association said, as a global orange juice squeeze drives prices to record highs.
South Africa's bleak orange export forecast comes at a time when Brazil, the world's top orange producer and orange juice exporter, is on track for its worst harvest in three decades due to a combination of bad weather and citrus disease. This has pushed orange juice prices to record highs.
South Africa is the world's second biggest orange fruit exporter after Egypt, and the overall second largest citrus exporter globally after Spain. It ships most of its fruit to Europe, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, North America, the United Kingdom and Russia.
Production Forecasts
The Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa (CGA) said in a statement it had cut orange production forecasts due to recent storms and flooding in Citrusdal in the Western Cape and frost damage in Marble Hall and Groblersdal in Limpopo.
South Africa now expects to export 51.6 million 15-kg cartons of Valencia oranges, lower than the season opening forecast of 58 million cartons, the CGA said. South Africa exported 52.1 million cartons of Valencias in 2023.
The country also expects to export 21 million 15-kg cartons of Navel oranges this year, lower than the initial estimate of 25.7 million cartons. It exported 24.8 million cartons last year.
"It is now clear that there will not be an oversupply of oranges this season. We are looking at a balanced market," Jan-Louis Pretorius, vice chairman of the CGA and a citrus grower in Limpopo, said in the statement.
