Ukraine's wheat exports are likely to fall 37% to 8.8 million tonnes in the 2023/24 July-June season due to an expected drop in the harvest and ending stocks, APK-Inform consultancy said.
In its first forecast for the 2023/24 season, the consultancy said Ukraine's overall grain harvest could fall by 13% to 45.6 million tonnes from the previous season, including 16.2 million tonnes of wheat, 5.2 million tonnes of barley and 22.9 million tonnes of corn.
Ukraine harvested a record 86 million tonnes of grain in 2021, including 32 million tonnes of wheat, before Russia's invasion of the country.
The agriculture ministry said this month the 2023 grain harvest could drop to 44.3 million tonnes from 53.1 million tonnes as large swathes of Ukrainian territory are occupied and mined.
The country's grain sowing area could shrink by 1.4 million hectares to 10.2 million hectares this year, it added.
Exportable Surplus
APK-Inform said Ukraine's grain exportable surplus in the 2023/24 season can total 29.3 million tonnes, also including 2 million tonnes of barley and 18.2 million tonnes of corn.
The consultancy said local consumption could amount to 17.8 million tonnes in 2023/24, or 7% less than the previous season.
APK-Inform also said Ukraine's 2023 sunflower seed harvest could increase by 15% to 12.8 million tonnes thanks to a larger sowing area.
The larger harvest could allow Ukraine, a leading global sunflower oil producer and exporter, to increase sunoil output by 5% to 4.9 million tonnes in 2023/24 and export 4.5 million tonnes.
The consultancy said farmers could also harvest 4.2 million tonnes of soy beans and 3.5 million tonnes of rapeseed.
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