Ukraine's grain harvest is likely to fall to about 52 million metric tonnes this year from 58 million tonnes in 2023, mostly due to an expected smaller sowing area, the farm ministry said in its first official harvest forecast for 2024.
The ministry said last month that the sowing area for corn was likely to drop 4.5% to 3.863 million hectares this year from 4.043 million in 2023.
Farmers may also reduce the area sown for spring wheat and sunflowers, but are tipped to increase it for spring barley and soybeans.
Crop Forecast
The ministry's crop forecast shows the country could harvest 27 million tonnes of corn, 19 million tonnes of wheat and 5 million tonnes of barley this year.
Ukraine has not published final 2023 harvest results. The latest figures put the wheat harvest at around 22.5 million tonnes, with farms also harvesting 5.9 million tonnes of barley and 28.2 million tonnes of corn.
The ministry said farmers this year might thresh 4 million tonnes of rapeseed, 12.5 million tonnes of sunseed and 5.2 million tonnes of soybeans.
The ministry has said farmers may sharply increase the area sown for soybeans this year to 2.199 million hectares from 1.780 million in 2023 because soybeans were almost the only profitable crop in 2023.
Oilseeds
Ukraine used to be the world's largest producer and exporter of sunflower oil. However, a decrease in sunoil prices could force producers to cut the area sown for sunflowers to 5.292 million hectares from 5.307 million in 2023, the data showed.
Ukraine harvested 4 million tonnes of rapeseed, 4.8 million tonnes of soybeans and 12 million tonnes of sunflower seeds in 2023.
Ukrainian grain traders union UGA said last month the combined grain and oilseeds harvest for 2024 was likely to shrink to 76.1 million tonnes from 82.6 million last year – far below the 107 million tonnes harvested before the Russian invasion.
The UGA said the harvest could include 26.3 million tonnes of corn, 20 million tonnes of wheat and 13.7 million tonnes of sunflower seeds.
