Credit card and debit card payments are set to account for 19% of overall online transactions by 2028, down from 31% in 2023, as emerging payment formats such as digital wallets and account to account (A2A) payments grow in popularity, a new global survey has found.
According to the survey of 10,500 consumers across 37 markets, which was conducted by Juniper Research on behalf of Boku, card payments will account for 30% of e-commerce transactions by volume in 2028, down from 41% in 2023.
At the same time, local payment methods (including digital wallets) will account for 58% of global e-commerce values by 2028, up from 47% in 2023, accounting for a majority of transaction value online for the first time.
Instant A2A payments, meanwhile, including platforms such as Pix in Brazil, UPI in India, or iDEAL in the Netherlands, are forecast to more than double and become the fastest growing local payment method within e-commerce. A2A payments will account for 18% of all e-commerce transactions by volume by 2028, up from 8% in 2023.
'Convenient And Seamless'
“Our research shows the way the world transacts online is changing fast, and that change is being driven in the main by a consumer preference for convenient, seamless payment methods like digital wallets, direct carrier billing and Account to Account transfers," commented Stuart Neal, CEO of Boku.
"Merchants now realise that the key to their future global growth and success lies in their ability to offer consumers more payment choice."
European Transactions
In Europe, the volume of e-commerce transactions using cards is set to drop from 53% in 2023 to 30% in 2028, the data showed, while A2A payments will grow from 16% volume of transactions in 2023 to 25% in 2028, with users valuing the ease of moving money without having to deal with intermediaries.
According to the data, online credit card transactions in Europe are projected to decrease from 38% in 2023 to 21% in 2028, while debit card transactions are expected to decline from 15% to 9% over the same period.
Buy now pay later (BNPL) services are also anticipated to gain popularity due to their seamless shopping experience compared to traditional card payments. With economic challenges on the rise in Europe, more consumers are likely to opt for BNPL options, leading to a significant growth in transaction volume within e-commerce.
Boku's study forecasts a 187% increase in BNPL transaction volume between 2023 and 2028.
“Our research for this report from Boku highlights that against a backdrop of continued strong growth in e-commerce, global card schemes continue to lose share to regional and local payment methods," commented Nick Maynard, VP of Fintech Market Research, at Juniper Research. "This is a trend seen at an aggregate global level but also repeated in every region across the world."
