E-commerce could account for as much as 40% of all retail trade in Sweden by the end of the decade, according to a new study by Svensk Handel, the retail and wholesale trade organisation.
According to the group, on the back of significant shifts in shopping behaviour as a result of the pandemic, e-commerce is likely to account for between 31% and 40% of total retail trade by 2030, and more than half of sales in non-food.
This is likely to lead to the closure of between 6,000 and 10,000 physical stores in the coming years, and the loss of up to 35,000 jobs, it noted, with Swedish shoppers increasingly using international sites when purchasing online.
'Right Conditions'
"Digitisation has made trade an international industry and Swedish companies must be given the right conditions to compete," commented Karin Johansson, CEO of Svensk Handel. "To protect companies and jobs, the cost of labor and rent must be adapted to the rest of Europe."
In terms of online food sales, the e-commerce share is anticipated to reach 18% by 2030, compared to around 4% today, again on the back of shoppers embracing online as a result of the pandemic.
While this will also have an effect on store numbers, the ongoing development of logistics and IT roles at grocery retailers is likely to see employee numbers increase slightly in this sector.
"Online sales will continue to grow and companies are adjusting to meet the customer where he or she is," said Johan Davidson, chief economist at Svensk Handel.
"The store will continue to play the main role, and for many companies, the mix between a strong physical and digital presence is crucial."
Swedish grocers such as ICA Gruppen have reported a significant increase in online traffic in recent periods.
Further information on Svensk Handel's various scenarios for the retail sector in Sweden can be found here.
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