The global e-commerce industry will be worth more than $4 trillion (€3.68 trillion) this year, new data has suggested, however its growth rate is set to slow in the years to come.
The e-commerce sector will be worth $4.11 trillion (€3.78 trillion) this year, Stocklytics.com said, which is a 90% increase on 2019 ($2.18 trillion), and a 15% gain on last year.
After COVID-19 triggered a boom in online shopping, the market revenue grew by an average of 25% per year, before slumping in 2022 and 2023.
Statista expects 2024 and 2025 to see high revenue growth rates again, rising by 14.6% and 16.4% year-over-year, respectively. However, after this recovery, the entire market will face a considerable slowdown, causing its revenue to grow much less than in previous years.
Downsizing Trend
'Global e-commerce revenue will increase by 11.5% in 2026, almost 5% less than the year before, and hit $5.34 trillion (€4.91 trillion),' Stocklytics.com said.
'The downsizing trend will continue in 2027, with the annual growth rate falling to 9.2%. Although the market revenue is forecasted to increase to almost $6.5 billion (€5.98 billion) by 2029, the annual growth rate will drop to only 4.6%, just one-third of the growth projected for this year.'
While all regions are expected to see a slowdown, Asia, the largest e-commerce market, which is home to e-commerce giants Alibaba, AliExpress, JD.com, and Rakuten, will see its growth rate decrease from 15.6% to 4.5% over the next five years.
However, despite this, Asia will generate over $3.15 trillion (€2.90 trillion) in revenue by 2029, more than half of the global total.
The US market's revenue will increase to $2 trillion (€1.84 trillion) by 2029, with the growth rate falling from 14.6% to 4.7%. Europe will see a growth rate of 4.5% in 2029, down from 11.8%, with nearly one trillion dollars (€920 billion) in revenue.
Despite the slowdown, the global e-commerce market will still gain over one billion new users in the next five years, increasing from 2.5 billion in 2024 to 3.6 billion in 2029, the data showed.
'Significant Changes'
'The global e-commerce landscape has undergone significant changes over the past five years, Stocklytics.com added. 'New technologies, including AI, voice search, AR and VR-enhanced shopping, and personalised customer service voice search, have taken the online shopping experience to a whole new level, practically erasing the differences between buying online and going into the brick-and-mortar store.
'These changes have helped the e-commerce market to draw more users and gross more revenue than ever despite the headwinds and setbacks, like supply chain issues, inflation, rising digital advertising costs, and changing consumer behaviour.'
