German meal-kit maker HelloFresh has reduced its 2022 outlook, saying inflation, waning consumer confidence and the Ukraine war would weigh on earnings in the second half.
The company lowered its revenue growth outlook for the year on a constant currency basis to between 18% and 23%, from a previously forecast range of between 20% and 26%.
HelloFresh also reduced its outlook for adjusted EBITDA to between €460 million and €530 million, from a previously forecast range of €500 million to €580 million, it said.
Shares fell more than 12% after the announcement.
Second-Quarter Performance
The company said that it performed better than expected in the second quarter of the year, reporting an adjusted EBITDA of between €140 million and €150 million, compared to analysts' expectations of €133 million, based on preliminary indications.
HelloFresh, which delivers boxes with ingredients and recipes directly to consumers' doors, was one of the companies that particularly benefited from pandemic-related lockdowns.
In a sign that the pandemic bump is over and consumers must now contend with rising inflation, HelloFresh's British peer Deliveroo also recently cut its forecast.
HelloFresh will publish its final figures on 15 August.
In June of this year, HelloFresh SE signed an agreement relating to the acquisition of software and other assets from logistics and procurement company iX-tech GmbH.
With this acquisition, HelloFresh is ‘aiming to strengthen its technological footprint, and scale and develop technologies for the production facilities in its international segment,’ it noted in a statement.
Analyst Viewpoint
Commenting on its performance, William Woods of Bernstein said, "HelloFresh has pre-released Q2-22 results today with a Q2 beat but a FY downgrade, which will be taken negatively and reflects poorly on the underlying stability of the business model. Q2 beat with revenue of €1.96bn (+2.6% ahead of consensus; even though customer numbers missed at 8m vs. the guide of 8.2-8.4m) and AEBITDA of €140-150mn (+9% ahead of consensus; +40bps beat on margins).
"Although this looks strong, there is a significant FX tailwind (c. +8% from USD earnings expected for the full-year) and FY22 guidance has been brought down."
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